Markets have grown more pessimistic about the outlook for US economic growth, and if that continues in a substantial way it may offer a chance to buy stocks, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The under-performance of cyclical equities this month signals concern that the recent tightening of financial conditions will stymie economic growth, Goldman strategists led by David Kostin wrote in a note Friday. At the same time, since the firm’s view is that the US economy will remain relatively resilient, companies in sectors like financial services, semiconductors and materials may still fare relatively well.
“Although we expect headwinds to discount rates and balance sheets to persist, we would view a substantial further downgrade to the growth outlook as a buying opportunity,” the strategists wrote.
This comes after the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% on Oct. 23 for the first time since 2007 as the Federal Reserve keeps rates higher for longer to ward off inflation. RBC strategist Lori Calvasina said the same day that the broader market is unlikely to find its footing until the surge in yields ends. Kostin warned earlier in the month that higher rates might be affecting US profits, and strategists at places like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have cautioned that the earnings outlook appears to be deteriorating.
Kostin sees the S&P 500 ending the year at 4,500, slightly above the average 4,370 among strategists tracked by Bloomberg. The gauge closed Friday at 4,117.37, down 10% from its 2023 high reached in late July. Just days before it reached that peak, Kostin said the benchmark’s high valuation was reasonable and might rise further into year-end.
