European natural gas prices declined for a second day as November kicked off with a mild and windy weather outlook and optimism that the war in the Middle East might not impact global fuel flows.
Benchmark futures for December declined as much as 3.9% after settling 9.5% lower on Tuesday. The continent is heading toward winter with full storage sites, and a mostly mild autumn hasn’t yet led traders to tap inventories.
Weaker demand now means more fuel will be available during colder months, and also in case global events lead to disruptions in supply. Traders have been closely watching for possible repercussions from the Israel-Hamas war on gas shipments, with futures still trading higher than before the conflict escalated last month.
Diplomatic efforts to prevent the war from spreading across the region continue, and Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, estimates that there is a 70% probability that it will remain contained.
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Meanwhile, in the UK, wind contributed to more than half of the power generation mix on Wednesday morning as Storm Ciaran approached. The storm is set to bring strong gusts and could pose a threat to power infrastructure.
Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, fell 2.8% to €46.69 a megawatt-hour at 9:07 a.m. in Amsterdam. UK prices also fell.
